Paradigm transfer , LED 

The greatest progress of the industrial revolution comes from whether the technology has the possibility of paradigm shift. For example, Kodak's negative film technology has been transferred to the community industry derived from digital cameras. Later, in Instagram or related software with beautiful picture functions (such as digital photo publishing), the market value soared.

 

Another example is the concatenation of network platforms (Stream), and content can be obtained quickly. In the past, Blockbuster, the king of physical stores, relied on having the world's largest physical DVD store as its core. However, Netflix does not have a physical storefront. Starting from the mail sending mode, the content is quickly forwarded to the Internet, and online audio-visual content is quickly generated, which has changed the ecology of the entire audio-visual family.

 

Since the invention of the light bulb, traditional lighting manufacturers in various countries have been firmly occupying the lighting market, but the emergence of LED semiconductor lighting has changed the lighting industry, mainly because of its lightness and longer life, which has led to many new entrants. Therefore, in the original industrial law, the original leading lighting manufacturer gradually sold the LED lighting business in the past ten years. This is also an example of paradigm shift. This LED semiconductor lighting not only wiped out the original lighting industry, but also got itself into trouble.

paradigm shift photo
paradigm shift photo

film

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instagram
instagram

internet

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Paradigm shift video
Paradigm shift video

DVD

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Netflix
Netflix

stream

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Tungsten lamp
Tungsten lamp

out of the market

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CFL Lamp
CFL Lamp
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LED Light Bulbs
LED Light Bulbs

Retrofit LED lamp

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LED NEXT
LED NEXT
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Back to the LED industry, this is a process from epitaxial wafer production to wafer manufacturing to wafer packaging. Traditionally, the cost of epitaxy has been reduced by enlarge the  single growth of the film or the total area to reduce the cost. Enlarge the wafer size in the manufacturing chip process to reduce manufacturing costs.

 

In addition, the performance improvement has led to a decrease in the cost of a single chip with equivalent performance when the chip size is reduced. Over the past three decades, the LED industry has generally followed the cost reduction of chips to drive cost reductions.

 

The role played by traditional packaging has not changed much in evolution, and the linear cost of maintaining the stent has decreased and the cost of scale has decreased.

Therefore, the LED industry needs to further improve the cost performance, which leads to the elimination of wire bonding first, and the elimination of leadframe, so that the integrated cost performance of LED components can be improved.

 

In addition, in terms of the cost-effective improvement of size reduction, some manufacturers currently use mini LEDs to improve the cost-effectiveness, but the entire process uses the higher efficient cutting, probe testing,sorting  to drive cost reductions. This price-performance ratio is still linear, especially this time , the machine replacements driven by the audio-visual 4K upgrade.

Other manufacturers hope to use micro LED to drive the industry's cost-effective improvement. Carefully analyze, this is also the use of equipment upgrades to reduce the cost of transfer and repair. And this linear cost decline seems to be slower than the decline of OLED.

Genesis photonics, gpiled csp design.jpg

Analyze the cost drive of electric vehicles in the past ten years.

 

The battery has reduced the huge cost and driven the overall electric vehicle, eliminating the engine and related fuel-related configuration costs of traditional fuel vehicles, resulting in a huge exponential cost reduction.Therefore, it is should be very carefully to watch the EV industry's evaluation. Will this tech will damage the original profit model of vehicle industry?

engine space
engine space

EV car gone

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Engine
Engine

maintenance and space

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chassis fuel car
chassis fuel car

complecated

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EV chassis
EV chassis

Flat and simple with electronic-mechanic system

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fuel car with oil industry
fuel car with oil industry

engine related industry gone

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EV battery
EV battery

battery industry and HV power device booming

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Since the handset and TV backlight is the important market of LED ,Let us consider that OLED first entered the mobile phone panel market in 2010.

 

By 2020, Apple has completely changed the mobile phone panel to OLED, and all investment in the LED backlight and mobile phone panel business that year has been lost. Such a conversion may be an exponential conversion. Ten years later, is it possible that the strong driving force of OLED technology will dominate the main force of current LCD TVs? Maybe Samsung Electronics will start selling OLED TVs soon? This all needs to be considered. Because even if the cost of mini LEDs is reduced, it is also the gains from the improvement of the equipment’s throughput performance.

 

As for the current mass production of Micro LEDs, there are many problems. Compared with existing OLED materials that have shown possible exponential improvement, it is also necessary to be carefully

choosing a market. And considering that the choice of nitride and quaternary material red LED may only be able to be adopted in the market in >100 inches.

Under the goal of exponential price-performance improvement, only the integration of semiconductors can demonstrate value.

 

Therefore, the paradigm shift we are concerned about is not to use more efficient equipment to reduce costs, but to use existing flip-chip and CSP technology, and to combine semiconductor concepts to make new functional LEDs to increase the LED value of exponentially.